Geoff Hinton: On Radiology
Why Hacker News recommends it
HN uses it as a famous example of an overconfident AI prediction that turned out wrong, since radiologists remain in demand.
What it is
A one-minute clip from a 2016 Toronto conference in which Geoff Hinton comments on deep learning and radiology. He suggests radiologists should stop being trained because machines would soon read scans better.
Recommended by 0 HN commenters across 0 different months, 2017 to 2026.
What Hacker News said
Cites observation · 2017-05 · on “Hey, Economist, Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?”
"It’s also important to be patient. College is an investment that pays dividends over your entire working life. If you’re a new graduate, you’ve just incurred the upfront costs of this investment in your human capital, but you have many decades to go to reap the economic benefits of your college degree. " I must admit, that triggered me. I say that is by far a too comfortable assertion. > It definitely seems that there's too much focus paid to the automation of transportation and the like, and even though those are going away, it's obvious a lot of white collar/office jobs are easier to automate away Curiously under examined while the cries for basic income go on, often projected as help for
Cites sndean · 2017-05 · on “Hey, Economist, Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?”
> I'm quite far from a technological utopian, but when Hinton states that radiologists should halt their training, he is not joking. > [this video] Thanks for pointing to that clip. Hadn't seen that
Cites leoc · 2026-06 · on “Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion”
He seems pretty unequivocal in the video: [this video] . He even points out that it’s something which he’s claimed previously, ruling out the idea that it was some kind of spur-of-the-moment conclusion.
Critical haldujai · 2023-05 · on “The greatest risk of AI is from the people who control it, not the tech itself”
> I can appreciate that. I haven't been listening to him for that long; having no idea what situation you're discussing, I'll take it at face value. [this video] We are currently facing the biggest radiologist shortage in the last 30 years. > It’s the unknowns which are dangerous. Electricity, the Industrial Revolution, the internet, gene editing/bionengineering also came with unknown existential risks. > We’re inventing something new in almost every way imaginable. > I think people assume advancements will accelerate, actually. This is highly debatable. > we're talking about the potential to build a new life form with godlike abilities. Evidence? This has been stated in sci-fi books from before
Critical cratermoon · 2023-10 · on “So Far, AI Is a Money Pit That Isn't Paying Off”
> the current trajectory is clear and verifiable. 2016, Geoffrey Hinton, "People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists." [this video]
Critical carbocation · 2025-01 · on “AI isn't going to kill the software industry”
I remember when Hinton said that that we should "stop training radiologists now" in 2016[1]. Meanwhile, radiologists are in high demand and are getting paid better than ever. I believe the same will be true for programmers in the future. Sure, some of the boilerplate will be handled for you, just like segmentation is for radiologists. That's great for everyone. 1 = [this video]
Critical chubot · 2025-09 · on “Interview with Geoffrey Hinton”
I guess it's worth reminding people that in 2016, Geoff Hinton said some pretty arrogant things that turned out to be totally wrong: Let me start by saying a few things that seem obvious. I think if you work as a radiologist, you're like the coyote that’s already over the edge of the cliff but hasn’t yet looked down It’s just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.… It might be 10 years, but we’ve got plenty of radiologists already.” [this video] This article has some good perspective: [LINK] His words were consequential. The late 2010s were filled with articles that professed the end of radiology; I know at least a few people who chose alt