Red Bead Experiment with Dr. W. Edwards Deming
Why Hacker News recommends it
HN cites it as a classic illustration of dysfunctional management, gamed targets, and blaming workers for systemic outcomes.
What it is
Excerpts from W. Edwards Deming's Red Bead Experiment, where workers draw beads from a bowl and are judged on red ones that are largely down to chance. It shows how system variation, not individual effort, drives results.
Recommended by 1 HN commenters across 1 different months, 2016 to 2025.
What Hacker News said
Recommends jdietrich · 2016-01 · on “Why Is Your Team Falling Behind? Ask ‘The Penny Game’”
A similar example regarding quality is Dr Deming's famous Red Bead Experiment. It is a fascinating insight into how dysfunctional management systems operate and perpetuate. [this video]
Cites daly · 2017-07 · on “Uncle Bob Explains the Programmer's Oath (Videos)”
Number 8, software estimates are complete nonsense. Read [LINK] I worked at a startup. Just before I was hired they bid on a fixed-cost 5 programmer, 5 month contract. After 10 programmers for 18 months they fired all of the (over 2 dozen) programmers and the company folded. At another startup I was given a project when the prior programmer left after 2 weeks. The project estimate was 8 weeks. I did an analysis (140 items, 4 of which had been completed) and estimated that the project would, at minimum, take over 6 months. The next day I was fired. IBM used to put out contract bids at 3 firms to build the frames for their mainframe computers. The independent bid estimates were delivered with
Cites daly · 2018-06 · on “Ask HN: How to not fail on coding interview questions?”
Send your architect home to build a rocking chair over his weekend. See if he calls you back on Monday. A take home test is a very clear statement by management that your time is less important than their process. As a professional, you only have your time and skill as your saleable assets. You have the choice of giving them away for free. You could, of course, take the test and then present them a bill for your services. Another interesting question to ask would be: "How many of your senior management were hired as programmers who passed a whiteboard test or a take home test?" Clearly, according to the market myth, those who did pass were "the best and the brightest". It only stands to reas
Cites ericalexander0 · 2022-01 · on “The Rise of Performative Work”
Given enough time. Yes, your surgeon has this attitude. Any system with a grade will be gamified to hit arbitrary targets. Even if those targets do not map back to customer value. Even if the targets are out of their control. Aka red beads. [this video] “Tell me how you will measure me, and then I will tell you how I will behave. If you measure me in an illogical way, don’t complain about illogical behavior.” – Eli Goldratt
Cites GarnetFloride · 2025-09 · on “If you are good at code review, you will be good at using AI agents”
Oh man, that's what I've been smelling with all this. It's the Red Bead Experiment, all over again. [this video]